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Monday, January 19, 2009

More Put Ideas

Selling cash secured puts continues to prove to be a profitable though fairly conservative move in these markets. I've mentioned this idea several times (here and here) in the past few months as a way to get paid handsomely while waiting for lower prices on stocks that I'm interested in owning anyway.

Why are puts so expensive? I overheard a stock broker on the streets of New York this weekend talking on the phone about the merits of buying protective puts on stocks. Basically, if you own stocks, you buy puts in order to protect yourself from any downside movement. With prices fluctuating wildly and the markets collapsing, however, this form of protection has become increasingly expensive. As such, you want to sell high on these expensive puts and buy low(er) on the underlying stocks.

One additional point worth mentioning is that it's better to do this on highly traded stocks. The added benefit of liquidity is that it's easier to close out your position. The bid-ask spreads on the less liquid options makes it pretty expensive to buy and sell options.

I recently closed out my positions in both the GE $10 March '08 Put as well as the FCX $12.50 May '08 Put. Both stocks had appreciated considerably, so the puts I sold had grown cheaper. Rather than wait for the puts to expire worthless to collect the entire premium, I decided to buy the puts back to close out the positions early and lock in more than 70% of the premium. This resulted in about a 17% return on the cash I used to secure the FCX put, and about 11% return on the cash I used to secure the GE put. In both cases, the holding period was under 2 months.

With my cash no longer restricted, I'm looking for more opportunities to sell puts. As always, make sure to do this only on stocks or ETFs that you are interested in owning anyway. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can adjust the return you receive by selling puts with strikes that are way out of the money. You should be indifferent to whether or not the put is ultimately exercised, as both outcomes are desirable. Here are some at-the-money put ideas to get ~20% return on your cash on some popular securities along with their potential outcomes:

I think many people would be comfortable buying the S&P 500 at its current level of 850 and holding onto it for decades. If that's the case, then selling the put on SPY should be an even better move. I collect $1,450 today by setting aside $8,500 to potentially buy SPY in Dec 2009, which I would be willing to do today anyway. I get a 17% cash return or a 17% discount on the purchase price, just by waiting a year. The same holds true for Microsoft and Apple, both stocks that I would be quite willing to buy at current prices.

To take advantage of this, I'm going to get my IRA account approved for options trading. Since this is considered ordinary income, it's best to do this in a tax-advantaged account.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

TogaPF 2008 Portfolio Performance

Time to assess the damage from 2008. The TogaPF portfolio launched on August 4, 2008 with $48,897 in existing holdings. An additional $35,500 was added at various points since launch. At year end (12/31/08):

  • Total contributions: $84,397
  • TogaPF portfolio: $79,063 (-20% IRR)
  • S&P 500 benchmark: $71,217 (-45% IRR)
  • Relative performance to S&P 500: +$7,800

Returns are measured based on the timing of cash flows into and out of the portfolio. The specific winning and losing trades ultimately sum up to what can be cashed out of the portfolio. The S&P 500 benchmark is the return that would have been received had the cash inflows been invested in the S&P 500 instead.

Realistically, I should include an estimate for liquidation cost that would be incurred in converting the portfolio to cash, but I'm ignoring that for now. I also haven't made any adjustment for dividends paid out by the S&P 500.

Clearly, my timing in starting TogaPF wasn't all that great. Although the portfolio did better than the S&P 500 benchmark, it's not that thrilling to be losing money.

One item that jumped out at me was $456.50 spent on commissions, not including the management costs embedded within ETFs. I expect that number to come down. $100 was spent due to establishing the TogaPF portfolio. Another $100 was spent on options trades, which I was still experimenting with. Overall, I'd like to keep transaction costs under 1% of assets per year.

Since only about 5 months have passed, these returns should be taken with a grain of salt. The real fun begins this year.

Revamped Portfolio

Thanks to EditGrid, the TogaPF portfolio is now pulling in up-to-date stock quote information from Yahoo! Finance and updating the portfolio valuation. The embedded spreadsheet includes the up-to-date portfolio, returns calculations, as well as a list of all past trades.